Big rub: Building city may die dish
Investment bank a newest research report expresses Magenshidanli, valence has been in the room of Chinese big city to drop urgently, real-estate industry dies dish possibility is very tall, and may cause major impact to the gain of the bank.
This report gathered together the research achievement of the digital analyst such as Lou Gang. They express, in the development business of attention, nonexistent without potential solvency problem. The 5 development business that appears on the market in Hong Kong also faces serious gain risk. The report points out, the circumstance of sales promotion of estate business depreciation already was in many inland are main the city appears. Chinese estate bibcock business of 10 thousand families is the first depreciation 25 ％ - 30% . The elegant room that Hong Kong appears on the market is happy also expressed a few days ago, the beginning of the year already reduced the price up to now 10 ％ - 15% , move fall target of 2008-2009 year sale evens more 30% , landed market undergoes stern test first half of the year, second half of the year also has a breakthrough hard.
Big rub after Chinese politic team passes research, reach the following conclusion: New round depreciation action will bring about landed market to break down, floor price drops to be met normally be a burden on clinchs a deal decrease; In addition, landed enterprise glides significantly besides occurrence gain outside, also face severe solvency difficulty probably; Bank profit performance also can be affected apparently, appear possibly 2009 gain enjoys growth. But Magenshidanli believes, although the bad loan rate of the bank will rise, but solvency won't appear problem.
However, this one view was not obtained approbate adequately. The personage inside course of study thinks, cast in the United States be faced with in succession all right the crisis, big even rub also oneself one cannot say for sure when, only China still is being protected growth and two-way choice is made in controlling inflation, apparent big rub the dilemma that faces, had exceeded itself of Chinese building city.
On the other hand, national statistic bureau just announces yesterday " country house boom index " show likewise, august, index of classification of estate development investment is 104.4, than July fall after a rise 0.37 bits, rise 0.68 a little bit compared to the same period. 1-8 month, the whole nation finishs estate development to invest 1.843 trillion yuan, grow 29.1% compared to the same period.
Index of financing source classification is 97.26, than July fall after a rise 2.02 bits, compared to the same period fall after a rise 5.65 bits. 1-8 month, implementation of company of countrywide estate development reachs the designated position capital two thousand five hundred and ten billion two hundred million yuan, grow 14.1% compared to the same period. Among them, home borrows money 504.9 billion yuan, grow 11.5% ; Use foreign capital 44.9 billion yuan, grow 21.0% ; The enterprise fundses raised by oneself 980.9 billion yuan, grow 34.5% .
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